Experiments of DSAEF_LTP Model with Two Improved Parameters for Accumulated Precipitation of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over Southeast China     

秦思  贾莉  丁晨晨  任福民  约翰·L·麦克布莱  李国平 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2022,28(3):286-296

The Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast model for landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) precipitation (DSAEF_LTP) utilises an operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for the forecast track, while the precipitation forecast is obtained by finding analog cyclones, and making a precipitation forecast from an ensemble of the analogs. This study addresses TCs that occurred from 2004 to 2019 in Southeast China with 47 TCs as training samples and 18 TCs for independent forecast experiments. Experiments use four model versions. The control experiment DSAEF_LTP_1 includes three factors including TC track, landfall season, and TC intensity to determine analogs. Versions DSAEF_LTP_2, DSAEF_LTP_3, and DSAEF_LTP_4 respectively integrate improved similarity region, improved ensemble method, and improvements in both parameters. Results show that the DSAEF_LTP model with new values of similarity region and ensemble method (DSAEF_LTP_4) performs best in the simulation experiment, while the DSAEF_LTP model with new values only of ensemble method (DSAEF_LTP_3) performs best in the forecast experiment. The reason for the difference between simulation (training sample) and forecast (independent sample) may be that the proportion of TC with typical tracks (southeast to northwest movement or landfall over Southeast China) has changed significantly between samples. Forecast performance is compared with that of three global dynamical models (ECMWF, GRAPES, and GFS) and a regional dynamical model (SMS-WARMS). The DSAEF_LTP model performs better than the dynamical models and tends to produce more false alarms in accumulated forecast precipitation above 250 mm and 100 mm. Compared with TCs without heavy precipitation or typical tracks, TCs with these characteristics are better forecasted by the DSAEF_LTP model.  相似文献   

Characteristics of Radar Echo Parameters and Microphysical Structure Simulation of a Short-Time Heavy Precipitation Supercell     

赵桂香  王一颉  连志鸾 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2022,28(4):388-404

By using the conventional observations, radar data, NCEP/NCAR FNL 1o×1o reanalysis data and numerical simulation data and with the construction and calculation of radar echo parameters, this paper presents the structural characteristics and physical processes of a short-time heavy precipitation supercell that occurred in the squall line process in Shanxi Province on 24 June 2020. The results show that this squall line event occurred in front of a surface cold front, combined with infiltration of low-level cold air and continuous increase of near-surface humidity in the afternoon. The surface mesoscale convergence line and mesoscale dew point front contributed to the development and systemization of the squall line by a large degree. The short-time extremely heavy precipitation in Pingshun County was caused by the development of a supercell from thunderstorm cells on the front side of the squall line. The characteristics of sharp increase in vertical integral liquid water content, persistent increase in reflectivity factor and continuous rise in the echo top height appeared about 23 min earlier than the severe precipitation, which has qualitative indicating significance for the nowcasting of short-time heavy precipitation. A quantitative analysis of the radar echo parameters suggests that the “sudden drop”of FV40 was a precursor signal of cells’coalescence and rapid development to the mature stage. The areal change of the echo core at the 6 km height was highly subject to the merging and developing of cells, the rapid change of hydrometeor particles in clouds and the precipitation intensity. Changes in the cross-sectional area of convective cells at different heights can indirectly reflect the changes of liquid particles and ice particles in clouds, which is indicatively meaningful for predicting the coalescing and developing-to-maturing of cells and heavy precipitation 30-45 min earlier. A comprehensive echo parameter prediction model constructed by the random forest principle can predict the magnitude of short-time heavy precipitation 40-50 min in advance. Numerical simulation reveals that large amounts of water vapor existed in the near-surface atmosphere, and that the cells rapidly obtained moisture from the ambient atmosphere and developed rapidly through maternal feeding. The cold cloud zone was narrow, upright and had a high stretch height. The upward motion in clouds was strong and deep, and very rich in liquid water content. The graupel particles had a large vertical distribution range, the coexistence area of graupel and snow was large, the height of raindrops was close to the surface with a wide horizontal scale, and the precipitation efficiency was high. These may be the important elements responsible for the occurrence of the short-time heavy precipitation that exceeded historical extreme values. On the basis of the above analyses, a comprehensive parameter (CP) prediction model is worked out, which can estimate the developing trend of supercells and the intensity of short-time heavy precipitation about 1 h in advance.  相似文献   

我国数字领海建设问题的几点思考     

姜晨光  袁春桥  潘吉仁 《海洋地质前沿》2004,20(10):6-9

阐述了我国“数字领海(含专属经济区)”建设的重要性与迫切性；介绍了“数字领海”系统的功能、基本特征、技术支撑体系、信息采集方法、信息管理方法及信息更新方法；指出了“数字领海”系统建设中应注意的若干问题。  相似文献   

江苏岸外条子泥二分水滩脊的沉积特征   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3  

陈君  张忍顺 《海洋通报》2003,22(3):23-30

2000年1月16日在江苏岸外条子泥沙洲二分水滩脊选取三条断面，进行底质沉积物采样及滩面高程测量。共采集样品27个，对其用激光粒度仪进行粒度分析，发现沉积物的粒度参数、粒度组分及其分布均具有一定的变化规律，且与滩面高程变化具有很好的相关性。  相似文献   

Spatial differences in reproduction of capelin (Mallotus villosus socialis) in the coastal waters of Sakhalin     

Velikanov  A. Ya. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2002,59(5):1011-1017

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海南岛博鳌港沉积物的沿岸输送   总被引：19，自引：0，他引：19  

高建华  高抒  陈鹏  葛晨东  朱大奎 《海洋地质与第四纪地质》2002,22(2):41-48

分析了博港沿岸沉积牧粒度参数的沿岸变化，并应用沉积物粒径趋势分析模型（GSTA模型）对沉积物运动趋势进行了分析。GSTA模型结果表明，博鳌港沿岸的泥沙在横向上表现为：万泉河口以北岸段为由海向岸运动，近期处于淤积状态；万泉河口以南岸段即玉带滩大致以NNE走向到NE走向的转折点为界，北部主要是由岸向海运动，是侵蚀岸段，而南部则主要为由海向岸运动，有少量的淤积，博鳌港沿岸泥沙输送在纵向上表现为：万泉河口以北由南向北运动，万泉河口以南，北部是由北向南运动，南部是由南向北运动，其次还运用了经验公式对GSTA结果进行了验证，得到了通过万泉河口南部（玉带滩）3个断面的沿岸漂沙量，其沿岸漂沙方向主要为南北向，以上两种分析方法得出的结果和当地的许多地貌证据基本符合，而GSTA模型在玉带滩北部泥沙纵向输运方向与经验公式计算结果所表现出的一些差异，主要是由于研究时间尺度和所用的资料特征的差异性造成的。  相似文献   

城市与工程测量EDM导线技术标准的分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

严伯铎  任晔平 《海洋测绘》2006,26(4):15-20

基于导线测量误差理论与电磁测距(EDM)导线的特性,分析讨论了城市与工程测量EDM导线的各项技术参数,提出了各级EDM导线技术标准的建议,通过计算验证所给出的这些技术指标是合理可靠的。  相似文献   

Age estimation, growth and maturity of the European hake (Merluccius merluccius (Linnaeus, 1758)) from Iberian Atlantic waters     

Pineiro  C; Sainza  M 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2003,60(5):1086-1102

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海洋天然气水合物调查地震采集技术——调查初始阶段研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

伍忠良  曾宪军  王立明 《海洋技术学报》2006,25(4):79-87

地震调查方法在水合物中的应用分为两个主要阶段:调查初始阶段和调查深入阶段。调查初始阶段以“突出天然气水合物的四大主要识别标志(似海底反射、振幅空白带、穿层特征、振幅和速度结构异常)”为主要目的,为资料的处理、解释提供丰富的地震信息。从而圈定天然气水合物富集程度高、成藏条件好的“目标”靶区,开展深入调查,更好地展现“天然气水合物矿体立体上的形态特征”,了解“水合物矿体的厚度、顶底界面及富集程度”。文中从震源技术研究、高分辨率地震调查技术的调谐组合参数研究和野外施工方法等方面的内容出发,根据大量野外技术试验资料和有关科研成果,总结了在天然气水合物调查初始阶段的特点及相应的地震调查技术。  相似文献   

台湾海峡及其西边地区正常地震动态及危险性特征   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

柯龙生  林世敏 《台湾海峡》1994,13(2):190-197

本文从地震的时，空分布特征，区域应力场动态，能量释放方式，ｂ值及震群特征６个方面研究了台湾海峡及其西边地区地震活动的正常动态及异常特征。结果表明，具有前兆意义的变化模式表现为区域地震活动在时间，空间及功能方面的有序性变化，即：（ａ）地震空间分布由分散转为集中，形成条带或空区；（ｂ）断裂活动由多组转为单一，应力场趋向一致；（display status  相似文献